French relations with the three AUKUS countries are likely to encounter friction, thereby complicating EU strategic engagements with Canberra, London and Washington. The maintenance of the rules-based international order, which is a primary objective of the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy, will be harder because the AUKUS security partnership is aimed directly at China’s role and expansionist aims.įor the major EU members, AUKUS particularly enflames the French by not just hijacking a submarines procurement deal but also by posing a frontal diplomatic and defense affront on France. By undermining the European Project and the rules-based liberal international order-of which the EU is the crowning achievement-Brexit’s impact has been intensified by AUKUS. Moreover, AUKUS comes on the heels of Brexit, whereby the UK essentially snubbed the EU by leaving the bloc after nearly 50 years of membership. But the EU’s engagement is more about the Indo-Pacific’s vital nexus of security and prosperity, not just about China. The tense Beijing-Canberra relationship is the main driver of AUKUS. Australia consequently cannot back down if it wants to maintain credibility and resolve, while China cannot afford to back off for the same reason. Australia started it by alleging that China originated the coronavirus pandemic, but Beijing then responded by bullying the Australians with a tariff and trade war. AUKUS is more confrontational vis-à-vis China, whereas the EU plan is more cooperative and broad-based, emphasizing “an open and fair environment for trade and investment” and an agenda for climate change and connectivity.ĪUKUS is underpinned by Australia’s conflict with China, where it is hard to gauge who is most at fault. While both AUKUS and the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy intend to uphold the rules-based liberal international order, their conceptualization is fundamentally different.
Beyond these concerns, the AUKUS deal to share Anglo-American nuclear technology to enable Australia’s acquisition of eight nuclear-powered submarines over two decades poses challenges to other major powers, particularly the European Union and its key members as well as Japan.įor the EU and its “strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific”, AUKUS is a clear challenge. Not only will the trilateral security partnership provoke China, but it will likely further divide Southeast Asia and overshadow ASEAN-centered cooperative vehicles, such as the East Asia Summit. The Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security pact has caused ripple effects across oceans and continents.
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